Why trading Ryan O'Reilly makes sense

It's all about dollars and cents. Or dollar$ and $en$e.
In the curious case of Ryan O'reilly, people like my self who call themselves Avalanche fans are not going to sit in the Av's home arena 20 years from now and talk about #90 going to the rafters. O'Reilly is good. In the right system, he's down right deadly. He's gritty, scrappy, and even for a whole season can take just about zero penalty minutes. He was drafted as a center, but has played mostly wing. That's an understatement of his talent, because he could easily be banging bodies on defense.
Basically, he's one of the biggest names headed into the 2016 free agent market. Let's see if he makes it.
One thing is clear: O'reilly likes his money. Around $6 Million and he is happy. He'll play every minute, and take every shift. Take a look around the league for players who are paid that kind of money. The vast majority are overpaid. Those remaining are clearly there for a reason.

O'reilly doesn't fit either of those, and what a coincidence he doesn't seem to want to fit in Denver either. Now he hasn't pulled the Javon Walker and said in the 3rd person that he wants out of Denver, but given his unrelenting pursuit of cash and the staff to help him get it he's definitely going to be leaving.

The question is: who? The next question is:When?

The who part is just as important as the when. I listened to a radio show the other day talking about this very topic. They said it was not a need for the avs to jettison Ryan and mortgage their playoff hopes to secure a defenseman. Anyone with a half way decent D-man isn't going to just let them walk free. Even the Av's best defender, Erik Johnson, took about 6 years to develop into what he is now. Ever wonder why he wear's the number 6?

So who this will be for is not going to be the next guy standing next to Erik in front of Varly. It also probably won't be the next guy standing next to Tyson Barrie. The av's will likely get someone to play third line and a couple of picks, especially with the D man market the way it is. That really narrows all the picks down, and pretty much puts the Avalanche in a situation to get a player who might match up in salary but not skill. In this situation, that might be Tyler Myers from Buffalo. He hasn't been as productive as once thought. His salary is the same and Buffalo can shed two 2nd round picks for 2 years. I mean considering they will likely be picking top 5 next season.

The minor situation is trading Duchene. Unlike O'reilly, Duchene isn't a 2 way player. If he doesn't have a set up man (see Paul Stastny), he's like a fish out of water. He's got speed and fire, but he doesn't have size and grit. One must also remember that the Avalanche still have that new Nathan MacKinnon toy in town. Seems to me that signing O'reilly long term and dumping dutchy is the smart move. Especially since Ryan can go back to center, and everyone can enjoy Crosby's local protege develop in Denver.

When will this happen? Well that depends on when the Av's want to give up on the post season. They have until the trade deadline, but their post season fate likely won't be decided until another month after that. I don't think the Avalanche have what it takes to be as impressive as last season. I think in the end, they will miss the playoffs with a bad fizzle at the end. That is of course they pull the Rockies style 20 game win streak and blow everyone's mind. In which case, O'reilly won't be worth anything to any other team and he'll either walk in 2016 or get traded for peanuts in 2015.

If the Av's do decide on dumping O'reilly before the end of the season, his stock will remain high. The av's will get a D man, this is pretty much a certainty. The av's won't have the wing grit they had with Ryan and the entire team will be a mirror of the whole reason they drafted MacKinnon in the first place: Had one thing, but didn't have another. In this case they will have all the nuts and bolts to make flashy plays and tape to tape passes, but nothing to keep them honest with a few punches or blue collar work.

The bottom line consensus here is that O'reilly is gone. He's not going to fetch top market value unless the Av's give up some serious security like a 1st round pick or Pickard. So 20 years from now, we may be talking about just the instance that unraveled the Avalanche for 3 straight years. By then the Pepsi Center will be ancient and players jerseys will be held on electronic boards. Perhaps we could buy an ad with Ryan's jersey on it to remind us of what could have been.

#holtznews