Why trading Ryan O'Reilly makes sense

It's all about dollars and cents. Or dollar$ and $en$e.
In the curious case of Ryan O'reilly, people like my self who call themselves Avalanche fans are not going to sit in the Av's home arena 20 years from now and talk about #90 going to the rafters. O'Reilly is good. In the right system, he's down right deadly. He's gritty, scrappy, and even for a whole season can take just about zero penalty minutes. He was drafted as a center, but has played mostly wing. That's an understatement of his talent, because he could easily be banging bodies on defense.
Basically, he's one of the biggest names headed into the 2016 free agent market. Let's see if he makes it.
One thing is clear: O'reilly likes his money. Around $6 Million and he is happy. He'll play every minute, and take every shift. Take a look around the league for players who are paid that kind of money. The vast majority are overpaid. Those remaining are clearly there for a reason.

O'reilly doesn't fit either of those, and what a coincidence he doesn't seem to want to fit in Denver either. Now he hasn't pulled the Javon Walker and said in the 3rd person that he wants out of Denver, but given his unrelenting pursuit of cash and the staff to help him get it he's definitely going to be leaving.

The question is: who? The next question is:When?

The who part is just as important as the when. I listened to a radio show the other day talking about this very topic. They said it was not a need for the avs to jettison Ryan and mortgage their playoff hopes to secure a defenseman. Anyone with a half way decent D-man isn't going to just let them walk free. Even the Av's best defender, Erik Johnson, took about 6 years to develop into what he is now. Ever wonder why he wear's the number 6?

So who this will be for is not going to be the next guy standing next to Erik in front of Varly. It also probably won't be the next guy standing next to Tyson Barrie. The av's will likely get someone to play third line and a couple of picks, especially with the D man market the way it is. That really narrows all the picks down, and pretty much puts the Avalanche in a situation to get a player who might match up in salary but not skill. In this situation, that might be Tyler Myers from Buffalo. He hasn't been as productive as once thought. His salary is the same and Buffalo can shed two 2nd round picks for 2 years. I mean considering they will likely be picking top 5 next season.

The minor situation is trading Duchene. Unlike O'reilly, Duchene isn't a 2 way player. If he doesn't have a set up man (see Paul Stastny), he's like a fish out of water. He's got speed and fire, but he doesn't have size and grit. One must also remember that the Avalanche still have that new Nathan MacKinnon toy in town. Seems to me that signing O'reilly long term and dumping dutchy is the smart move. Especially since Ryan can go back to center, and everyone can enjoy Crosby's local protege develop in Denver.

When will this happen? Well that depends on when the Av's want to give up on the post season. They have until the trade deadline, but their post season fate likely won't be decided until another month after that. I don't think the Avalanche have what it takes to be as impressive as last season. I think in the end, they will miss the playoffs with a bad fizzle at the end. That is of course they pull the Rockies style 20 game win streak and blow everyone's mind. In which case, O'reilly won't be worth anything to any other team and he'll either walk in 2016 or get traded for peanuts in 2015.

If the Av's do decide on dumping O'reilly before the end of the season, his stock will remain high. The av's will get a D man, this is pretty much a certainty. The av's won't have the wing grit they had with Ryan and the entire team will be a mirror of the whole reason they drafted MacKinnon in the first place: Had one thing, but didn't have another. In this case they will have all the nuts and bolts to make flashy plays and tape to tape passes, but nothing to keep them honest with a few punches or blue collar work.

The bottom line consensus here is that O'reilly is gone. He's not going to fetch top market value unless the Av's give up some serious security like a 1st round pick or Pickard. So 20 years from now, we may be talking about just the instance that unraveled the Avalanche for 3 straight years. By then the Pepsi Center will be ancient and players jerseys will be held on electronic boards. Perhaps we could buy an ad with Ryan's jersey on it to remind us of what could have been.

#holtznews 

Deflate-Gate

Ever since Richard Nixon threw out the issues created in "Water-Gate", every problem has been a something - gate.
Not surprising, the New England Patriots have inspired another "Gate". This time it's the game balls.


Let's recap: Indianapolis players get's the ball and gives it to his equipment manager. Keep in mind this is New Englands actual ball. Indianapolis has their own. The equipment manager gives the ball to an NFL official who gives the ball to a representative for competition.

A couple of days later we have a full blown problem, and yes sir it's the Patriots at the end of it.

Is there a real problem here? Probably not. The issue is that the Patriots got caught in a quagmire. The real issue is that of all the teams who mess with the football, someone got caught in a meaningful game. Even though a fully inflated ball would not have helped the Colts the Patriots are in trouble.

The question is, when did this ball deflation happen. If it happened in between the time the officials examined the ball and the start of the game, this is cheating.

If this happened before the certification from the official's then this is on the NFL. Don't believe for a minute that the NFL won't make this a New England problem.

Either way, good ole Bill will be punished. The question is to what extent?


Bill shouldn't be fired. He should be suspended for this. The problem is, what regulations come from this?

Monday Night Raw

Yes, you can tell me wrestling at the WWE level isn't a sport. You can tell me it's more of a drama, and therefor shouldn't be on my sportsticker.
Well I still believe it's a sport, and that's all that matters.
This past year (2014) has been a horrible one for WWE. I started watching just prior to Wrestlemania 30. The unlimited show stopper had everything in it. That is, everything except C.M. Punk.

It only got worse from there. Daniel Bryan became a bonifide superstar and attracted some of the largest audience post-punk. Then the Authority had the foresight to strip him of his title and make him match up against other wrestlers. He lost, and they banned him. Unplanned was the injury, leaving WWE scrambling back to Punk. Instead of wrestling on the banner Raw show, Punk left WWE and created a buzz in the community about how bad he had it. Talk about a bad PR move.

While things were still down, the Authority had another awesome trick up their sleeve: They would break up the Shield. Little did they know that prior to one of the biggest matches of the year which would have vaulted Roman Reigns into power, the super samoan would require emergency surgery. Again, busting the brand. With no one out, and limited fire power left the heads began spinning b list superstars to fill the RAW bill.

Needless to say, it didn't work. Then, when everyone thought that WWE couldn't get any worse their only legitimate superstar was written off for a movie. Dean Ambrose. With no one left, and no hope for any come back the creative department came up with an idea: put the controls into the fans. Now really the control didn't go to the fans, they just wanted you to think this. But for 2 months, we didn't see any authority. Why didn't we see any Authority?


STING.

The former WCW champion made his debut on RAW in an un-hyped promotion and helped team Cena shock the wrestling world. Everyone wanted Sting to return, but at his age he really couldn't become the next superstar.
Instead, he bought time. With the time that the Authority was out of power, Ryback, Eric Rowan, and Dolph Ziggler were built into stars. They got just enough time to get people watching WWE, just so that the authority could return AND FIRE THEM.

Why would they fire the A listers? To make you angry enough to want to see them again.

Then, when everything was down and out the Authority was back. They reigned havoc on the Universe.

Now tonight, Sting returns and we are back in order for the new year.

University of North Dakota Hockey

For quite a while, I've been a passive onlooker to the University of North Dakota Men's hockey team. This is a team from a state that doesn't have much else to offer. The cold blustery, flat corn fields leave little room for graduates to want to stay there. I wouldn't want my family to have to live in such a place. In fact, any hockey traditions in Grand Forks have less to do with the community and more to do with the University?

Well that's simple: Fans. The thing about UND is their following. It's not like a Colorado College fan base, or a Denver fan base. This fan base is only concerned with one thing, and that thing is their beloved men's hockey team. So when the Badgers show up, it's not necessarily all hockey fans, but fans of the UW sports system. Not with UND. These are all hockey fans, and if you scale the number of pure hockey fans showing up to a UND away game to that of a Michigan or Wisconsin or Minnesota game, you would be shocked.

Tradition is something that is built on the past. UND has a great past. They also have a great future. Right now they are sitting pretty good. One must ask though: how much will this school change with a new logo? Will fans finally stop shouting "Sioux" at the end of the national anthem and replace it with the new mascot? I doubt it.

Take a look around the NCAA and look at it's two darlings: Boston College and Minnesota. These are the two schools that I would consider to be heavyweights. Every year these two schools account for about 40% of the nations top NCAA committed talent. To put that into perspective, Wisconsin and Michigan would probably account for 10% at best. The next best school is probably North Dakota. This cornfed community in the middle of no where, with nothing to do is the 3rd best recruiting program in the nation. How is this possible? Well, everyone know's the UND culture. Every player is coddled by the fans. That's just the way it is. As much as Alabama's football players are treated like royalty, their basketball players are more like the decked out Lincoln Navigator than the Rolls Royce.

At UND, their is no Lincoln Navigator. There is no, "other team". While they do have a football program and many other sports, no one really cares. This school recruits some of the best talent in the nation to a program with one of the best traditions. How is this possible? Take a a look.

WWE Takes a New Route

In case you have been focusing on a sport like football, basketball or hockey, the little known sport of wrestling has been on going. Unlike any other "sport" on Yahoo! these days, the WWE is all scripted. This is a well known fact. Not to mention, is there really a 240 lbs. guy who can super-plex another 240 lbs guy from the top rope? I doubt it.

But I digress. I have been watching WWE since about March. I just turned the show on one day, and have been watching every Monday Night Raw since. One thing I didn't realize was that the week before I tuned in, CM Punk quit on the show. That was a huge blow to the programming that is still recognizable to this day.

Since that time, Daniel Bryan has pretty much come and gone as a WWE champion. Of all the moves the WWE has made, I think the Bryan dethroning has been the biggest mistake. They were making a killing off of Daniel and stripped him of his belt to piss off the WWE universe. Then John Cena get's the belt, while Bryan get's hurt. Little did we know that 6 months later, we would see the title belt once a month or less.

Tonight's show was the first time that I have felt something great since the departure of Daniel Bryan. Tonight, Mr. McMahon came on the show and pretty much threw the Authority under the bus and made them one up their survivor series rematch. The problem with the authority all along was that they only pissed people off. They never came off as truly bringing something new to the table.

So let's break down what happened tonight and it's implications.

The first is that Randy Orton is no longer in the authority. Outside of Triple H and Kane, the only fighting member of the authority is Seth Rollins. This doesn't look too good from the outside. Triple H throws down the orders, while Kane runs interference and Rollins does the dirty work. With Orton gone, this team doesn't look so good.

Rollins looks quite small, and doesn't appear to have the same appeal that Orton brought. Not to mention, who will enforce? The authority has been quick to talk about how Rollins starts problems only to have the rest of the group finish. The loss of Orton (assuming he leaves the Authority) doesn't do much to the Authority in the first place. Think back to the last meaningful match up with Orton. That match would be when he lost the WWE championship. That's a long time ago. Ever since then, it's been the rest of the gang cleaning up the shit for Orton. Much like Orton has been cleaning up after Rollins.

Now here is the interesting part. The WWE has always been built on feuds. There has always been a dominant group. Whether that be the Shield, the Authority, Degeneration X, or the NWO there has always been somebody. So while the idea of the Authority breaking up is awesome, it doesn't fall into line with previous writing.

The list of wrestlers who dislike the authority is long. So expect team Cena to be big. However, having a wresting group as big as team Cena for longer than 2 weeks will be a disaster. Eventually it will be about 5 wrestlers on team Cena with everyone else wanting a piece.

That idea is not John Cena. Cena is always about respect and loyalty. Ganging up on others is not never giving up. That's working the system over.

So this could play out really well for viewers. For about 2 months, we could see a WWE without a leading group. It appears that the authority is destined to break up. Let's just say they do.

It will only be a matter of time before someone organizes a group to re-establish the authority. So for two months, we could be getting just what we asked for.

Fantasy Sports Drafts

It's that time of year. Fantasy "input your sport here" and you have everything planned. From the position of the over hyped first round pick to the sleeper in the final rounds, every pick is a tactical one. You probably have entered a couple of mock drafts, or at the very least looked at the top picks in the draft. Maybe even going as far as analyzing how the new wide receiver will affect your quarterbacks passer rating, or how the lack of a defense will force your center in hockey to play back and reduce his points. Maybe it's the position of your basketball forwards that you don't like. Doesn't matter, you are an expert and no one will convince you otherwise.

I take the same walk as you. Whether you are the up to the minute stat checker, or the casual Monday morning roster mover you have something in common with me. You like sports, and expect them to produce something in your fantasy league. I feel you, and understand your ways. For football, I use my own algorithm to pick my players. I developed the equation about five years ago and have fine tuned it over the years. You might say I am too dedicated, but this is my response: for football, I enjoy the game until hockey starts. Once hockey starts, that's all I care about and I spend at least three nights a week positioning my team.

Here is how I broke down my football league this year. My algorithm doesn't take into effect the injuries of players, or their probabilities. To put this into a nut shell, I came up with an equation that requires a little bit of research for football but is spot on in hockey. For football, I input every offensive lineman's height and weight. You don't get O-line stats in most football leagues, but the QB's effectiveness has a direct correlation to these guys. Next I average their height to weight ratio. For every time a sack was directly allowed, I input a negative five into the equation. For every run over 5 yards I add .05 to this number. (I do this because you can't get reliable stats on which holes a running or quarterback will go). Runs of of six to 10 yards get a .10 and anything eleven or more yards gets a .30
So now we have 3 numbers, the height and weight of each lineman, their average height to weight ratio (this is always in proportion to each player so that you are not making the same stats for everyone) and finally the sack/run number. (If the sack/run number totals zero, I make it a -3.14 which is roughly pie. You'll catch that reference later.)
Now I take the QB's average passing yards per play ( make sure this is per play and not per game). This becomes my fourth number. Finally I add the number of plays thrown to a WR/TE minus the number thrown to a RB or any other non WR/TE.
This gives me my fifth number.
So here is what I do: You make a quadratic equation. Look up the formula on Google for reference as it will look weird in line format.
First take the height and make it in inches. No 6 foot 3. It's 73 inches. Then you take the weight of that line man and divide it by the height. So let's say a guy is 6 foot 3 and 400 lbs. Looks like this: 400/73 = ~5.48
Next we take the height to weight ratio. Again convert to total inches. For argument's sake let's say everyone on our O-line is 6 foot 3 and 400 lbs. We want to use a BMI calculator for each person, but since we have all the same guys, we take our BMI and divide it by 5 (5 offensive lineman). So in this case our BMI is 50, and we have 5 guys
50/5 = 10
Next, let's say last year we allowed 15 sacks. (this is a two part math problem)
15*-5 = -75
Next we need our run totals. Let's say we allowed 50 runs of five yards, 16 runs of 5-10 yards, and 10 runs of 11 or more:
50 * .05 = .75
16 *.1 = 1.6
10 *.3 = 3.0
.75 + 1.6 + 3.0 = 5.35
Next we take the sack number and divide it by our run number:
-75/5.35 = -14.01
Let's say the QB's pass per play was 7.5
lastly, let's say our QB threw to his WR/TE's 400 times and non WR/TE's 200 times:
400-200 = 200
Let's put this together: 5.48 *-14.01*7.5/-75*200
5.48*-14.01*7.5 = -575.81
-75*200 = -15000
-575.81/-15000 = .03838
Square root of .03838 = .196
Then finally we use that 10 way up there and multiply it by .196 which gives us: 1.96
This is how effective our offensive unit is in relation to the QB. This dives deeper into the stats and tells us a number. These numbers don't do anything unless you have two or more QB's to relate. I use this specific equation for effective QB's in football and goalies in hockey.
For the last 3 years I have won the championship in football by a landslide. With the exception of last year, I have won 4 straight championships in hockey. I had some injuries in my hockey league late in the playoffs and didn't bother using this algorithm. It cost me.
It should be noted that I have an effective equation for defensemen, forwards, WR's, RB's and Defensive units. I use all of them, but only showed you how I use two.

So with that in mind, let's think about why it's so important to draft yourself and not auto draft. Everyone knows that the top picks are the best players. An auto draft will accomplish getting you this. What auto draft won't get you is the last picks of the draft. Those, like the first rounds, are selected off of pre draft rankings. Those players could wind up off NHL or NFL rosters by the end of the year. That is why I developed this equation and it has worked. It also goes to show why you should never auto draft: you don't get to pick your last player.

Soccer Fever

Sports have been a backbone of the United States since our inception. Not only is a sport a way out, but it gives everyone a chance to compete. Benchmarks are made, which only helps people evolve their skills and better their respective games.
Modern sports are the same way. We take our children to fields, or rinks, or courts or wherever we can find a place that allows us to enjoy our family. These settings become home, and the lessons learned become life. We apply sports to living a peaceful life, even likening ourselves to success in sports.
During the early 1900's, Baseball was a way for people to socialize. Like Facebook and Twitter, people went to a game to become noticed. Whether they were sporting new knickers, or a nice dress the ball park was always the setting. This drove our youth onto the field and helped solidify baseball as an American icon. Over time, people drove from far away to see their favorite teams. Even Sunday became a game day. Sadly time did baseball some bad work too.
Players like Pete Rose took the game away from the field and onto a casino floor. Others like Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa made the game about themselves. All of this me, me, me tone eventually took the game away from the stands as much as it filled them. Baseball became not a game of class, or fun for the family but a game where the focus was to see who could hit the most home runs. The focus became stats.
Last week, ESPN published an article that Soccer has overtaken Baseball as the number one sport among young youths. This was shocking at first, but then I gave it some thought. Football has come under massive scrutiny. The game has changed from the hard hitting defenses and non-stop offenses to lawsuits off the field and head injuries on the field. It's no longer about the actual game. Think about it. The super bowl get's people to watch just for the television ads and the half time show. Once again, it's about the stats.
Even the NBA is waning. Basketball grew in the small courts where children could play. Many basketball players today grew up in the inner cities. May of them are black. This was not by mistake. This happened because the black family had to work twice as hard to get around. The black children didn't get the same opportunities to attend a game. So they played out their favorite fantasy's the basketball court and have turned to dominating the sport. However, America is growing every day. Not just in size, but in attitudes towards others. The same high intensity games are not taking place anymore. Black children are being given many of the same opportunities that once were not available to them. On the NBA court, teams are selling for all time high's. Doesn't even matter that the teams on the court play horribly.
I don't think the NHL is even a fair argument. The cost of hockey is insane. Most families don't have the time to invest in such a sport. Unless something changes, hockey will find it's way into the cellar peeling for every last fan before it's major base drops. All hockey needs is another lock out and fans become annoyed.

But not soccer. No, not soccer. I'll tell you why not soccer. For years I have avoided the game. I hated it. I can't tell you why I disliked such a cheap game, but I did. I served in Iraq, where I handed out soccer balls on a daily basis. The joy of a simple ball was as great for a 15 year old as it is with my 2 year old son. From top to bottom, nobody cares about the stats. Most MLS arena's are not expensive by comparison with their higher tier counter parts. Soccer is mainly played out in public parks, where an entire family can enjoy something. Sound familiar, maybe like middle 1900's baseball?
Not to mention a ball is about $20. You can have an enormous amount of players in one game. And unlike football or basketball, the scene never changes. Jersey's do. No one ever asks you to put on shoulder pads, or step into a fancy arena. Many college games are played at simple parks. Most pro teams utilize the facilities of NFL teams, or open parks.
Soccer has been here all along. It's been cheap, and it has not changed much at all. Unfortunately the world cup ends in a couple of days and the dreams of an elongated relationship will fade faster than a Lindsey Lohan rehab stint.

No matter what happens on the television, or far away soccer will always remain cheap. It will always be the game in the park, and until something vastly changes it will always be the underdog. Let's hope it stays this way so that everyone can enjoy it, until someone figures out how to sell it.