Although another weekend in the current WCHA is about to sunset with two vastly different perspectives brewing.
St. Cloud has been a force this year. A team that seems to tie up loose ends by fighting to the finish. Mentioning this year's huskies to previous ones might make some laugh. Hell, it wasn't but two years ago that the Huskies were reeling from a locker room fight in Tampa, Florida which sent some of the teams best prospects running away from the school. That dark weekend seemed to solidify the Huskies as a joke of a team with no solid future.
However, these Huskies have surged. Rightfully so they own the bragging rights to current WCHA leader as the season winds down. While taking what is theirs, they are slowly and painfully eliminating this season's class of bottom feeders. Without a doubt, this Husky team is ready.
While the Huskies look up, they cannot help but to look down at the crowd beneath them. Having freshly beaten a contentious Gopher team, they are presently the understudy of another Husky team living in their past. That Husky team would be none other than the Michigan Tech Huskies. Led by former Michigan assistant coach Mel Pearson, they've just been eliminated from contending for the Mcnaughton cup. In two weeks time, they will likely be out of contention to stay home for the WCHA first round playoffs.
Speaking of playoffs, let's break down the probabilities of home ice. With 12 points available for the taking, the home playoff picture is starting to glisten.
Anchorage, Bemidji will not be hosting a home series during the first round. One more loss officially put's Michigan tech out of the picture as well. Given St. Cloud's win this weekend, Michigan Tech has been officially eliminated from the Mcnaughton cup.
Next on the chopping block is Colorado College. Facing a tough Husky team next week they will need a win to stay relevant. Colorado College is not officially eliminated from the status as league champions, but aside from every team in front of them not showing up next week they won't be hosting any hardware in Colorado Springs. CC is down at this point but not out of anything. With 12 points remaining, they will need a sweep of St. Cloud AND Minnesota State to break the 3 way tie for 5th place. Currently, CC owns the advantage over Wisconsin and would lose by virtue of record to DU.
Best case scenario: CC goes into the Michigan Tech game needing a win or better for home ice. They'll get it. But aside from a "sweeping" (pun intended) performance over two Minnesota State schools, they Tigers will be packing their bags for the first round.
Minnesota Duluth will likely play on the road during the first round. They face a down bemidji team followed by Minnesota, UAH and UNO. I fully expect the Bulldogs to leave those three series with two points. (The two that don't matter).
Wisconsin is in a tough Situation. They currently head into the next 4 series against the toughest WCHA competition. The Badgers need to register a win each WCHA weekend or the Kohl Center will be filled with Basketball fans in March.
Denver has a little bit easier schedule for the 6th and final playoff spot. Anchorage has not been playing well, so it appears that in all likely hood the Pioneers will leave the next 3 series with at least four points. Good enough to keep them home for the first round.
Minnesota State has been solid all year. Not as solid as their husky upstate counter parts, but ready to take on any challenge. Michigan Tech shouldn't be to tough. Expect Mankato to be hosting the first round.
Minnesota will likely coast to a first round home series. Omaha looks solid for a home game while the, No named former Indians and Huskies will both be at home.
What I predict:
Mcnaughton cup to the Gophers.
1st round:
UM hosting UAA
SCSU hosting Bemidji
UND hosting either CC or Tech
UNO hosting CC or Tech
Minnesota State hosting Duluth
DU hosting Wisconsin
These are radical for the most part and will likely change.
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Bold new predictions for a bold new year
2013: The final frontier.
This is the year when college hockey shakes it's feathers and dusts it's wings off for new voyages. If you are not privy to the hockey world, I am talking about college hockey re-alignment. This year is a good one too.
First: I am so incredibly happy that UAH found a home in the WCHA. This will leave no team as an independent for the coming season. A great way to start recruiting. Also with this, I would not be surprised to see one or both of the Alaska teams fold. Two teams no where near the rest of the pack, I think the strain will show in year 4 of this new league.
Next: The B1G (big 10). This will mark the beginning of money talking in college hockey. No other league in the nation will bring in as much money as the big 10. Not because of seating, but because the big 10 has it's own dedicated television station which will give each hockey member an extra $5,000,000 a year in revenue. Just for comparison, Notre Dame currently has all sports under a contract with NBC. Their current revenue contract for college hockey is at $1,000,000 per year split between each CCHA member except Bowling Green and Northern Michigan. Both of those teams receive nothing from NBC because they refused to include any NBC affiliate sponsors in their home arena's. With the new Big East forming, Notre Dame will receive $3,000,000 which will be split among every team playing Notre Dame. Roughly equating to about a $1,000,000 take home for Notre Dame and $2 Mil spread throughout the league. Challenge that to EACH school in the BIG 10 getting $5 Mil a piece and you can see where the money is going.
With that being said, I am throwing out my predictions for the final standings of the Big 10. Early yes, but not nearly as complex as the NCHC:
1. Minnesota - Too much firepower to pick anyone else. Unless Minnesota has one bad game, I'd expect the Gophers to be the first Big 10 member representing the conference at the tournament.
2. Wisconsin - Building is key and this is something that Wisconsin has done well. An incoming crop of freshman next year with six potential 1-3rd round NHL picks is something to be wary of.
3. Penn State - They move into a new building with a new era in Happy Valley. They have looked good this season as an independent. I expect high things from this club down the road.
4. Michigan - Since appearing in the Frozen Four two years ago, Michigan has lagged. They've found a way to get quality players in with bright NHL futures only to the lose netminders to Canada's upper division junior league.
5. Michigan State - This is a growing team that was trounced by Minnesota at the beginning of the season. I don't see any reason why this team will do any better than fifth in the first year. They look quite terrible and hopefully getting Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in their arena will improve recruiting.
6. Ohio State - OSU only has hockey because somebody had a large amount of money and donated it to the school for hockey many years ago (See Penn State). However, they have not done anything with that endowment. Hopefully this is only a 1 year hiatus from being poor. The best thing for the Buckeye's is the local junior teams. The worst thing is the Blue Jackets. That problem should be remedied in a couple of years.
Now....On to the harder task. Predicting a 6 team conference is pretty easy. Not too much variance to work with, and not much thought either. But when you deal with a team as diverse as the new NCHC, you actually have to think. So I did, and I brought some notes.
How I think the NCHC will shake down:
1. Miami - Though the Red Hawks have never won a national championship, they have been able to recruit very well on Ohio's southern border. They often get players who are mid-level quality and grow them over time. This is the exact case for their current Junior and Sophomore class. Everyone on the team looks good, and appears in place. I had the chance to see the Red Hawks at the Kohl Center. They look quite solid in every way. They lack the situational speed that UND, DU have so I fully expect them to tire on the Olympic ice sheet's dominating the NCHC. But that will be a small hurdle that Miami will overcome.
2. St. Cloud - I am for the moment, sold that St. Cloud looks good for the coming years. They are developing young prospects and playing them well in every situation. I've often heard the saying that no national championship team has issues. I'd say that might describe St. Cloud pretty well. They seem to have it all down.
3. North Dakota - I think this year is going to be the showering of prediction for the no mascot formerly known as the Fighting Sioux. Hakstol has skill in coaching and he improves his players almost every year. I would say currently NoDak is on a down year. Having a winning season on a down year proves that your team is good. 7 national championships also does that.
4. Nebraska-Omaha - TIE - The mavericks are a good team bringing in strong talent. Last year they were rated as having the #2 ranked incoming class. All signs point to a similar pool in the coming year. With this being year 1 of the NCHC, I don't expect the Mav's to come out swinging with a steel bat. I expect them to come out slightly new and looking to improve. Dean Blaise has done a great job thus far. The switch in conferences might show the Mav's that they do indeed need to work a little harder.
4. Western Michigan - TIE - WMU is coming off of a season full of pain. They have moved into solid positioning within the CCHA and represent well within the highly liquid conference. They do not however have the recruiting base that the above mentioned 4 have tapped into. Some time in the NCHC will do the Bronco's some good. Beating up on the below teams will help too.
6. Denver University - DU is struggling lately. They have too much talent to compete. Is there such a thing? DU is chock full of high end talent, none of which seems to be able to do anything else than satisfy themselves. The top shelves have been empty all season for DU. Three good goaltenders of which none have come out to say "I'm great" and not a single player directing traffic on the ice. DU is always a side show though. They can be off one year and in the mix with everyone the next.
7. UMD -TIE - After washing away talent and not replacing the missing pieces with anything noble, Duluth now sit's near the bottom of the WCHA and looks to have a lull year with new freshman. UMD was good when they had the connolly duo, but never had solid goaltending. Not a new coach situation, but it's looking pretty bad for the bulldogs.
8. CC - TIE - CC could come out great. But I don't think the Tigers will make a splash in the first year. They are in the midst of changing their defensive game and in the process will lose a goalie who brought them within 1 save of fighting for a national championship. Talk has been heavy about the tigers bringing in new talent, but the type of talent needed to compete in the new Owens system almost certainly has to be strong. I just don't see this happening in the first year.
This is the year when college hockey shakes it's feathers and dusts it's wings off for new voyages. If you are not privy to the hockey world, I am talking about college hockey re-alignment. This year is a good one too.
First: I am so incredibly happy that UAH found a home in the WCHA. This will leave no team as an independent for the coming season. A great way to start recruiting. Also with this, I would not be surprised to see one or both of the Alaska teams fold. Two teams no where near the rest of the pack, I think the strain will show in year 4 of this new league.
Next: The B1G (big 10). This will mark the beginning of money talking in college hockey. No other league in the nation will bring in as much money as the big 10. Not because of seating, but because the big 10 has it's own dedicated television station which will give each hockey member an extra $5,000,000 a year in revenue. Just for comparison, Notre Dame currently has all sports under a contract with NBC. Their current revenue contract for college hockey is at $1,000,000 per year split between each CCHA member except Bowling Green and Northern Michigan. Both of those teams receive nothing from NBC because they refused to include any NBC affiliate sponsors in their home arena's. With the new Big East forming, Notre Dame will receive $3,000,000 which will be split among every team playing Notre Dame. Roughly equating to about a $1,000,000 take home for Notre Dame and $2 Mil spread throughout the league. Challenge that to EACH school in the BIG 10 getting $5 Mil a piece and you can see where the money is going.
With that being said, I am throwing out my predictions for the final standings of the Big 10. Early yes, but not nearly as complex as the NCHC:
1. Minnesota - Too much firepower to pick anyone else. Unless Minnesota has one bad game, I'd expect the Gophers to be the first Big 10 member representing the conference at the tournament.
2. Wisconsin - Building is key and this is something that Wisconsin has done well. An incoming crop of freshman next year with six potential 1-3rd round NHL picks is something to be wary of.
3. Penn State - They move into a new building with a new era in Happy Valley. They have looked good this season as an independent. I expect high things from this club down the road.
4. Michigan - Since appearing in the Frozen Four two years ago, Michigan has lagged. They've found a way to get quality players in with bright NHL futures only to the lose netminders to Canada's upper division junior league.
5. Michigan State - This is a growing team that was trounced by Minnesota at the beginning of the season. I don't see any reason why this team will do any better than fifth in the first year. They look quite terrible and hopefully getting Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in their arena will improve recruiting.
6. Ohio State - OSU only has hockey because somebody had a large amount of money and donated it to the school for hockey many years ago (See Penn State). However, they have not done anything with that endowment. Hopefully this is only a 1 year hiatus from being poor. The best thing for the Buckeye's is the local junior teams. The worst thing is the Blue Jackets. That problem should be remedied in a couple of years.
Now....On to the harder task. Predicting a 6 team conference is pretty easy. Not too much variance to work with, and not much thought either. But when you deal with a team as diverse as the new NCHC, you actually have to think. So I did, and I brought some notes.
How I think the NCHC will shake down:
1. Miami - Though the Red Hawks have never won a national championship, they have been able to recruit very well on Ohio's southern border. They often get players who are mid-level quality and grow them over time. This is the exact case for their current Junior and Sophomore class. Everyone on the team looks good, and appears in place. I had the chance to see the Red Hawks at the Kohl Center. They look quite solid in every way. They lack the situational speed that UND, DU have so I fully expect them to tire on the Olympic ice sheet's dominating the NCHC. But that will be a small hurdle that Miami will overcome.
2. St. Cloud - I am for the moment, sold that St. Cloud looks good for the coming years. They are developing young prospects and playing them well in every situation. I've often heard the saying that no national championship team has issues. I'd say that might describe St. Cloud pretty well. They seem to have it all down.
3. North Dakota - I think this year is going to be the showering of prediction for the no mascot formerly known as the Fighting Sioux. Hakstol has skill in coaching and he improves his players almost every year. I would say currently NoDak is on a down year. Having a winning season on a down year proves that your team is good. 7 national championships also does that.
4. Nebraska-Omaha - TIE - The mavericks are a good team bringing in strong talent. Last year they were rated as having the #2 ranked incoming class. All signs point to a similar pool in the coming year. With this being year 1 of the NCHC, I don't expect the Mav's to come out swinging with a steel bat. I expect them to come out slightly new and looking to improve. Dean Blaise has done a great job thus far. The switch in conferences might show the Mav's that they do indeed need to work a little harder.
4. Western Michigan - TIE - WMU is coming off of a season full of pain. They have moved into solid positioning within the CCHA and represent well within the highly liquid conference. They do not however have the recruiting base that the above mentioned 4 have tapped into. Some time in the NCHC will do the Bronco's some good. Beating up on the below teams will help too.
6. Denver University - DU is struggling lately. They have too much talent to compete. Is there such a thing? DU is chock full of high end talent, none of which seems to be able to do anything else than satisfy themselves. The top shelves have been empty all season for DU. Three good goaltenders of which none have come out to say "I'm great" and not a single player directing traffic on the ice. DU is always a side show though. They can be off one year and in the mix with everyone the next.
7. UMD -TIE - After washing away talent and not replacing the missing pieces with anything noble, Duluth now sit's near the bottom of the WCHA and looks to have a lull year with new freshman. UMD was good when they had the connolly duo, but never had solid goaltending. Not a new coach situation, but it's looking pretty bad for the bulldogs.
8. CC - TIE - CC could come out great. But I don't think the Tigers will make a splash in the first year. They are in the midst of changing their defensive game and in the process will lose a goalie who brought them within 1 save of fighting for a national championship. Talk has been heavy about the tigers bringing in new talent, but the type of talent needed to compete in the new Owens system almost certainly has to be strong. I just don't see this happening in the first year.
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